IRANCOLLAPSE
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COMPOSITE REGIME STRESS INDEX

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STABLE0-34
VULNERABLE35-64
CRITICAL65-100
HOW THE NUMBER IS BUILT
--ALGORITHMIC +--CALO =--
HARD NUMBERS
CALO, AI INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

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    CONFIDENCE -- INDEX IMPACT -- MODEL CLAUDE HAIKU 4.5
    SIGNAL FEED 11 RSS SOURCES

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    EVENT GEOGRAPHY · LAST 7 DAYS
    PROTEST EVENTS (7D)
    BATTLE / EXPLOSION
    GEOMETRY: NATURAL EARTH
    INDEX HISTORY
    ALGORITHMIC SYNTHESIS
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    TOP MOVERS · LAST 24 HOURS
    TWELVE INDICATORS · RANKED BY CONTRIBUTION TO THE INDEX CONTRIBUTION = SCORE × WEIGHT · TOTAL -- POINTS
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    WHAT THIS IS NOT

    This is a measure of pressure on the regime: not a probability that it falls, and not a countdown. A reading of 72 does not mean 72% likely. Weights are set by judgement, published in full, and every source is named and timestamped.

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    Iran Regime Stress Index

    Iran Collapse is an independent open source intelligence dashboard that publishes a composite 0 to 100 regime stress index for Iran. The score is rebuilt every ten minutes from twelve weighted indicators and the full history is kept, so the series can be read backwards as well as live.

    The twelve indicators cover civil unrest and protest activity, armed clashes and targeted strikes, the open market rial exchange rate, Brent crude, internet availability inside Iran, prediction market pricing, proxy and militia activity, cyber incidents, infrastructure stress, nuclear programme signals, elite cohesion and external military posture. Each is scored independently, weighted, and combined with a smoothing rule that limits how far the composite can move in a single cycle.

    A high reading means several unrelated measurements are elevated at the same time. It is a description of pressure, not a forecast, and it is not a probability that the government falls. Every source is named on the page, the methodology is published in full, and the underlying time series is available through a public API.

    Common questions. How often does it update? Every ten minutes. Where does the data come from? Eleven curated newsroom feeds, ACLED conflict data, open currency and commodity sources, Polymarket, USGS seismic data, NASA FIRMS satellite thermal anomalies and IODA internet outage measurements. Is there an API? Yes, the live score and a seven day history are free and open.